United Russia: what to do with the rating

The presidential administration thought about what to do with the ratings of the ruling party after voting on pension reform.

According to Gazeta.ru, according to data on August 10, the indicators of United Russia dropped to a record 34.9%. Last time, sociologists recorded such a low result only in December 2011, when mass protests took place in the country. According to the newspaper, the task was to raise the rating in the leadership of the domestic political bloc, so the party will work on this issue in conjunction with the presidential administration of the Russian Federation.
Some specific solutions to the issue have not yet been voiced, although, according to sources, such conversations have been going on for several weeks already after Vladimir Putin spoke on the issue of pension reform, saying that he does not like any of the options for raising the retirement age.
However, there are already general ideas about how a plan to rescue the ratings of United Russia will look approximately: for example, it is planned to look for new faces among UR members who will be positively perceived by the electorate.“We need to show that United Russia is not only officials and deputies, but also doctors, teachers, people who do good deeds,” say sources.
Earlier media also reported that changes in the pension system could be offset by a number of liberal initiatives. The interlocutors also note that the presentation of "concrete results" is always best for the ruling party, as well as the capture through the party projects of new, important topics for people. Directly in United Russia they say that the party is thinking of improving its rating "on a planned basis."
Meanwhile, the authorities were expecting a decline in United Russia, since representatives of the EP deputies were the main speakers on the planned changes. Moreover, in the party itself, deputies were not allowed to publicly criticize the reform or refuse to support it. Because of this, several parliamentarians now have problems with party or Duma posts - for example, Sergey Zheleznyak, who did not participate in the vote in the first reading, referring to hospital, or Natalia Poklonskaya, who voted against the reform in general.
Now the State Duma announced the holding of parliamentary hearings on the reform, which should take place on August 21 and in theory should be somewhat alleviate the negative that has arisen around this issue.
At the same time, experts note that the fall in the ratings of the ruling party is not as dramatic as it may seem. This is due to the fact that they consist of two parts - basic and situational. Analysts admit that the basic part of the EP rating is not much higher than 35%, however, if the party focuses on the regional agenda, it can achieve an increase in indicators, since specific problems for the population are always more important than the general background.
Nevertheless, experts say, downgrades can really be a problem for the EP. First of all, this will affect the upcoming election campaign in preparation for the single voting day - it will be very difficult for United Russia. However, the point is not even that the party may lose the majority in the legislative assemblies - a decrease in the final results will give reason to talk about reducing the popularity of power. Therefore, the result of United Russia should not be much lower than in 2016.To do this, the authorities do not need to play to increase turnout, and throw all the forces on a point mobilization.
Sergey Sorokin, Candidate of Political Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Administration of the Northern (Arctic) Federal University, comments on the situation: “Of course, the expectations of the planned pension reform were the main factor behind the decline in United Russia’s rating. So it’s obvious that the situation will remain tense until irritant. <...>
Delaying the issue does not benefit United Russia, which, on the eve of a number of regional and municipal election campaigns on September 9, is under strong pressure from the opposition.
Switching the focus of attention of voters from pension reform is possible only by focusing on the regional and local agenda, sharing in the minds of voters federal, regional and municipal issues. <...>
And, of course, the important part will be played by the technological part of election campaigns and the quality of work of regional party organizations, which need to be done so that their electorate comes to the polling stations. "
Political strategist Rustam Abdullin believes that it will be difficult for the party to regain the trust of voters: "With the collapse of the EP rating by 3% per week, it is difficult to find and apply simple solutions that can reverse the process. <...>
The processes taking place in society are complex and simple change of persons is indispensable. It seems that voters cease to perceive the EP as a symbol and a basis for stability, which you need to hold on to so that, God forbid, it is not like in Ukraine. <...> The level of negativity and perception of the party exceeds the capabilities of a sufficiently effective regeneration of the party. Above the base electorate, stably voting for power, the EP will not jump.
The only thing that can slow down the process is Putin’s return to the EP as leader of the party, but in the long run this is a bad decision for Putin himself and the team of successors. <...>
Another problem for the authorities is that the electorate who turns away from the EP, loyally disposed towards the authorities, has no one to pick up, there is no such vacuum cleaner party. "
Yuri Kolomeytsev, director of the Center for Social Innovations Black Cube (Vladivostok), believes that the current rating does not carry big risks for the party in power in regional elections.At the same time, he is sure that now all political parties need an update, not just the EP: "It should be noted that a party rating of 35% (according to VTsIOM data) is quite an acceptable indicator for many regional and local elections, which As a rule, the proportional system is not held. In addition, one should not forget about the low turnout in small elections in Russia. <...> Elections in the field, as a rule, are won by opinion leaders, who often either have no worthy opponents or rating is higher than 35%.
New faces are needed not only for the EP, but for all other parties that are actually represented in regional and municipal authorities. The more a person is in power or in big politics, the more willy-nilly he will discredit himself. Therefore, I repeat once again: the choice of EP and AP tactics for conducting the next election campaigns was obvious. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
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